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In one month, projections have shown that there could be as many as 11,000 more COVID-19 patients hospitalized - double the current number - in New York hospitals, Cuomo said, with 3,500 more potential virus-related deaths.
“This is what we’re looking at, and it could overwhelm some regions by January," Cuomo said during a COVID-19 briefing on Monday, Dec. 14. That’s the trajectory.
“We’ve heard from people who are concerned about 25 percent indoor dining or more testing at gyms and salons, but that is not the real problem.
“That’s not what you should be worried about,” Cuomo continued. “You should be worried about a shutdown. If we do not change the trajectory, we could be heading toward a shutdown, which is something to worry about.”
Cuomo said that any region that is in danger of reaching 90 percent hospital capacity within three weeks will be designated as a COVID-19 “red zone” and there will be an economic shutdown of all non-essential businesses.
“Deaths are a worry, and a shutdown of the economy is a real, viable worry, and this is not coming from an over-anxious personality. It’s not far fetched, it’s something to really worry about,” he added.
“We’ve heard some people say ‘well I’m upset that you’re trying to change the trajectory,’ but you should be happy, because if we don’t, your business is going to close, and that my friend is a real problem.”
To help change the trajectory and “flatten the curve,” Cuomo said that the state will have to increase hospital capacity and management by reducing elective surgeries or creating 25 percent more available beds.
“(Red zones) are what we’re trying to avoid, and thankfully no region is in that situation now,” he said. “That’s what people should be worried about … It’s not about 25 percent dining or 50 percent dining to 0 percent, or testing once a week not twice a week. The fear should be a shutdown and that’s what we’re trying to avoid.”
According to Cuomo, any area or region designated as a “red zone” will then have the three weeks to curtail the spread of the virus, increase hospital capacity, and evaluate the hospital system there to determine whether progress has been made.
“If you go to a full shutdown, it gives us three weeks to work on hospital capacity, we can see what the shutdown does to make a difference on the rate of spread, but there are no other tools in the tool bag,” he said.
“We have vaccinations now, yes, but they’re not going to kick in for several months, so we need to prevent the holiday spread if we want to avoid shutting it all down and going back to where we were.”
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